February 18, the Central Economic Work Conference held in Beijing. Analysts believe that demand management will become a supporting role next year, while the supply-side reforms will become the protagonist. Specifically, the core of the supply-side reform has three points: First, go inventory, and second, to production capacity, the three major state-owned enterprises reform, taxation, finance, social security and so on. Under the relevant policy is expected to escort, real estate, coal, steel and building materials and other four industries will accelerate the pace of de-stocking, growth and restructuring is still the main attraction of investment market in the coming year. Today, the “Securities Daily” special research center in the form of special reports on the four industry leading companies to the stock situation and sort out analysis for investors.
real estate
Less investment shrinking supply
To stock or real estate, “Thirteen Five” main tone
While the boom still low levels, but the warm air and the rise of industry sales data, the policy side, the market has seen signs of the real estate industry is getting warmer. The analysts also said that in the context of the supply system reform, to inventory and optimize the industrial structure of the real estate industry will become a trend, thus boosting industry to achieve recovery.
In fact, real estate has become a problem to the inventory management of most concern. In the recent meeting of the Central Financial Work Leading Group held on to resolve the real estate inventory has become one of the “four war of annihilation” General Secretary Xi Jinping, and in the 14th meeting of the Central Political Bureau meeting, as an important part of the supply-side reforms, Real estate stocks also an important issue to the meeting. Specifically, the conference made it clear that to resolve the real estate inventory by accelerating people of migrant workers, promoting the reform to meet the new public housing system as a starting point, to expand effective demand, stabilize the real estate market. And this, analysts on the “Securities Daily” reporters, including “speed up the people of migrant workers”, “to promote the new urbanization” and other tasks, will greatly activate latent demand for housing, in reduced investment, the supply of compressed background next, the actual supply and demand in the real estate industry to change the status quo, improvement of the current high inventory situation.
Fundamentally, as of November this year, China’s real estate sales data remarkable year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, by the end of a second-tier cities of the property market continued to pick up, driven by the national real estate sales area and sales amount of the first 11 months are up rose: National real estate sales 7.4522 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.6%; national real estate sales area 1,092,530,000 square meters, an increase of 7.4%.
At the same time, real estate development and investment growth continued to fall, in the first 11 months of national real estate development investment 8.7702 trillion yuan total investment growth to 1.3% from 11.9% in the same period last year. In this regard, Changjiang Securities, said the low level of investment in the real estate industry will become the norm in the future, but short-term rebound is still worth the wait. Based on industry mid to inventory premise, real estate investment is expected to remain in the mid-lower level (central value around 5%).
Despite the sharp decline in investment growth, but in the “negative interest rates” and to the inventory of large logic, major institutions have believed in the promotion of the policy side, the real estate industry in 2016 worth the wait. Wherein the Capital Securities will be represented, the next 3 – A 5-year industry topics will continue to destocking tone, full recovery still under the premise of destocking, optimize the supply structure and the release of just and reasonable demand and improve the type of demand, easing policy still has a play space; enter “negative interest rate” era, both ends of the supply and demand of the industry continued to benefit from the easing of monetary and policy environment, the demand side relative purchasing power increased dramatically, to improve the financial structure of the supply side will also release part of the profit margins, overall return pressure eased. Industry 2016 policy side is expected to remain good, and in the “negative interest rate” era, the industry will usher in a “warm winter.”
The risk capital is practical action to reflect their own optimistic about the real estate industry, which can tie treasure is directly continuous placards became the largest shareholder of China Vanke A– the real estate industry leader, which, Dongxing Securities, said the venture capital frequently raised placards leading real estate stocks show that venture capital to determine the performance of housing prices in the long run good. And whether it is based on the joint development of the business angle, or the angle of return on equity, and venture capital’s admission has been released to the market a very clear signal, leading enterprises and regional focus on housing prices still have a very high investment value, the future will have More housing prices are placards.
On the secondary market, at the supply side of the reform is expected to push this year to achieve a good overall real estate stocks outperformed the broader market, Vanke A, Poly Real Estate and other leading shares also recently is to achieve substantially higher.
Then there are what the company is expected to come to the fore in the “supply system reform” in the secondary market has become the darling of it? China Merchants Securities, said the new pattern of incremental new economy and stock picking is the future core logic. Incremental new pattern: Follow tier and second-tier Resource Value compensatory growth opportunities, corresponding to Nakasu Holdings, Fuxing shares; longer period required to pay attention to the real estate industry (especially pension); shock city background superimposed on the left side of the logic cycle, increase the value of blue-chip configuration, correspondence Vanke A, Poly Real Estate. Stock of the new economy: Follow transaction information, community service, inventory optimization and other fields, the corresponding LaSalle Bank, Fuxing shares, Yunnan City to vote. In addition, the city voted platform and state-owned enterprises or continued hot, correspondence Yunnan City to vote, as well as Shenzhen local Lushang related stocks.
Steel
Destocking Speed
Four angle Nuggets opportunities outlook
Recently, the State Council introduced the New Deal to clean up zombie companies, more than three years, the central enterprises will be clearing a loss, the steel industry to accelerate the process of production. Recent site statistics steel social inventory to speed up the signs, rebar futures prices a certain support. Since December, 1605 rebar futures contract price over the cumulative increase of 3% from the bottom. Insiders said that, due to lack of downstream demand, excess supply in the state, the intensity of steel production determines the size of the magnitude of the price boost.
It is worth noting that publicly available data show that in November 2015, 22 cities nationwide five varieties of steel community inventories decreased greatly affected by seasonal factors, the wire thread stock fell more than 15 percent. November stock 8,185,000 tons, a decrease of 1.0611 million tons, down 11.48 percent. Of this total, 7.301 million tons of steel stock market, reduce 1,007,100 tons more than in October, down 12.12 percent; port stocks 884,000 tons, down by 5.4 million tonnes less than in October, down 5.76 percent.
It is understood from the national wire rod, rebar, hot rolled coil, cold rolled coil, plate five varieties of total stock, as of December 11, the national comprehensive inventory total of 9.054 million tons, reducing 20,500 tons, a decline of 0.23%. National steel inventory ninth consecutive week of decline, the current inventory levels fell 6.67 percent from a year earlier. The market generally believes that the plate stocks continue to decline slightly, building materials stocks turned up by the fall, suggesting that seasonal factors affecting the demand for construction steel is more obvious, the latter the domestic steel market stock or will be transferred to the rising channel.
Judging from the listed company stock, according to “Securities Daily” Market Research Center statistics show that 52 steel companies first three quarters of 2015 was 20.085 billion yuan stock, up 9.54 percent drop. Among them, there are 38 companies in the first three quarters of this year showed varying degrees of stock decline, accounting for 73.08%, while Bengang Steel Plates, Hebei Iron and Steel, Chong Hing resources, Hangzhou Iron and Steel shares, Zhongyuan Special Steel, property in Rio, Hainan Mining, the new steel During the shares, Maanshan Iron and Steel shares, share your rope, Anyang Iron and Steel, Lingganggufen, Juli rigging, mining and other 14 companies Hualian stock decline in more than 20%, respectively, 61.20%, 56.05%, 49.38%, 47.75%, 44.79%, 43.48%, 37.07%, 33.60%, 33.06%, 32.00%, 29.74%, 27.39%, 26.50% and 24.37%.
According to CISA statistics, in 2015 10 months, medium-sized steel enterprises amounted to a loss of 38.638 billion yuan, of which the main business losses of 72 billion yuan, with an average profit margin of -1.5%. Loss of 12.516 billion yuan of which in October, a decline of 25%, the main business losses of 14.88 billion yuan, a decline of 27.8%, the main business monthly sales profit rate of -5.37%, another record high deficit years.
Analysts pointed out that the steel industry reduced production, will promote the steel industry destocking accelerated. Supply-side reform, the state-owned steel enterprises will accelerate reform and transition in China’s economic restructuring and transformation process, the steel will play a more important role in the military, aerospace, automotive, high-speed rail, nuclear power and other fields; new line of Guangdong, Zhejiang officially approved marking China’s oil and gas pipeline construction will accelerate again, the steel industry structural growth worth the wait.
From the secondary market, the performance of the steel plate this week, more active, in 52 steel stocks can be traded in the stock outperformed the broader market this week, there are 35 stocks in which Constant new day, Panzhihua vanadium and titanium, Xining Special Steel week, up more than 30 percent, reaching 34.29%, 30.61%, 24.33%, while the HTC mining, Hebei Iron and Steel, Shandong mining, Jinzhou pipeline, Daye Special Steel and other stocks also rose over the week in 10% or more.
Investment opportunities, GF Securities, said the steel industry continued to boom down, supply-side reform accelerated down production capacity. From the perspective of four Nuggets outlook opportunity: First, welcome policy spring breeze, the steel industry has become one of the main areas of state-owned enterprises. More reform is expected in the form of incentives, asset allocation, optimization of the ownership structure of state-owned steel enterprises to improve their efficiency from nature. Focus on: Bayi Iron and Steel, SGIS, Baosteel, Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes, Angang Steel, Bengang Steel Plates, Lingganggufen, three steel Min light, Hebei Iron and Steel. Second, diversified business transformation booster steel prices profitability. Or in saving environmental protection industry as a leader, or the development of electronic business platform, or improve production technology, focusing on: Nanjing Iron & Steel, Hangzhou Iron and Steel shares, Valin steel. Third, steel bear in nuclear power, military, high iron, automotive and other areas of economic transformation task, the enjoyment of economic reform and restructuring bonuses, special steel industry into the high-speed growth. Key recommendation in line with industrial policies, leading companies segments: Jiuli, TISCO, Baosteel, Daye Special Steel, Fangda Special Steel, Fushun Special Steel, Maanshan Iron & Steel, Xining Special Steel. Fourth, benefit energy upgrades, structural reform and other oil and gas, oil and gas pipeline construction continued to accelerate. Recommend Yulong shares, Jiuli, Jinzhou pipeline and Chang Po shares; recommendations concern the nation’s largest ductile iron pipe manufacturer Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes.
coal
Accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity
The coal industry concentration is expected to further enhance
After a golden decade, along with overcapacity and environmental situation is becoming increasingly serious in recent years, eliminate backward production capacity, mergers and acquisitions to become the main theme of the coal industry, destocking has become a major practical problems facing the industry.
Decreased proportion of coal consumption will undoubtedly become a major industry to the inventory problem. According to the “Energy Development Strategy Action Plan (2014- 2020),” released in 2014, by 2020, the proportion of the national coal consumption dropped to less than 62% of total primary energy consumption control at about 4.8 billion tons of standard coal, the coal consumption total control at around 4.2 billion tons; basically formed a relatively complete system of energy security. While in 2014 the proportion of the national coal consumption was 64.2%.
In this regard, analysts said, although the proportion of coal consumption, China is gradually reduced, but can not deny that, coal and other primary energy consumption will continue to occupy a central position in China’s energy system over the next years. Therefore, production and eliminate backward production capacity in recent years become the main way to change the supply and demand of the industry, and how to clean and efficient use of coal is the main task of the coal industry in China. Future, with the upgrading of industry concentration, the technological advantages of leading enterprises towards clean and efficient coal will lead the way, to accelerate the reform of the supply system.
This year, the National Energy Board issued a “clean and efficient use of coal Action Plan (2015-2020)” was how clean and efficient use of coal requests, made guidelines. Specifically, the “action plan,” said the strengthening coal quality management, speed up the processing of advanced coal quality, coal-fired power generation technology and equipment research and industrial applications, and steadily promote related industrial upgrading demonstration, establishing policy guidance and market-driven combination The mechanism for promoting clean and efficient use of coal, to build clean, efficient, low carbon, secure, and sustainable modern clean coal utilization system.
Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission deputy also stressed the good 任连维 National Coal Trade Fair 2016, “Thirteen Five” period, China will accelerate the closure and restructuring of old, low-quality coal production capacity, strict control of total capacity. He said the next few years, there are still a large number of small coal mines need to eliminate or recombinant (production capacity of 30 million tons of coal mine total capacity totaled 570 million tons / year coal mine production capacity of 90,000 tons in total production capacity totaled 310 million tons / year) .
Back on the secondary market, this year the overall performance of the coal sector is still in the doldrums, according to “Securities Daily” Statistics show that within the plate 38 only 12 stocks to achieve higher this year, while China Shenhua, Lu’an and other industry leaders cumulative It fell more than 20 percent. But note that, with the supply system reform is expected to gradually increase, the recent steady rise of the plate, there have been signs of a specific point of view, since December, said 38 stocks have risen 30 to achieve, where Meijin Energy (23.87 %), Panjiang shares (21.9%), blackening shares (20.82%), * ST Aetna (13.21%), coal gasification (10.7%), and within a month the stock rose more than 10%.
In this regard, CSC said that in 2016 the demand-side and supply-side potential to stabilize expectations and may make changes in investor risk appetite stock, then bring the band of investment opportunities. But overall industry next year at the bottom of the consolidation period, so the stock will not be rising trend, more opportunities from the band picked up.
Specific investment opportunities, the broker said, coal stocks opportunity or greater than the second half of the first half of 2016, optimistic about the three companies: one to benefit from the supply-side mergers and acquisitions, state-owned enterprises expected the company: China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, Shaanxi Coal ; 2 to benefit from demand-side stabilization elastic varieties: Panjiang shares, Yangquan Coal, Shanxi Lu’an Environmental Energy, Jizhong Energy, Wing Tai energy and other varieties (operation timing of such species is very important); 3 Transition companies: Supply Chain Finance theme still cause for concern: Hejia, Swiss trade pass.
The Changjiang Securities is even more optimistic, the broker said, expect the supply-side reform fermentation sector is expected to obtain excess returns, excess returns promising sector continued to Spring: 1. Recent industry supply and demand on the margin improvement, coal downlink come to an end; 2 The demand side in the macroeconomic and structural adjustment downward in the background too difficult improvement, supply-side reform of the industry production capacity clearing more operational and practical significance; 3. current supply side gradually strengthening policy reform extent expected large scale implementation at the end of 2016 and will continue until 2018, will usher in a phased sector excess revenue opportunities anticipated first wave of policy-driven. Individual stocks, recommended the reform and reorganization expected strong, large group (local state-owned) assets quality local coal SOEs, such as great energy, Haohua Energy, Yanzhou Coal, Hengyuan Coal, cloud-dimensional shares.
Building materials
Building materials highlights the problem of overcapacity
Growth and transformation into a major investment attraction
Development of building materials industry and real estate development is closely related to, along with the continued weakness in the real estate industry, building materials industry overall downward trend evident, overcapacity and other problems have become more serious.
Data show that three quarters of 2014 is still substantial growth in the building materials industry, but never came to a standstill in the fourth quarter onwards, with the real estate industry, the trend is very similar. WIND three building materials industry in the 48 listed companies, three quarters of 2014, revenues were 51.9 billion yuan, 128.4 billion yuan, 203.7 billion yuan, an increase of 18.95 percent, respectively, 9.93%, 6.92%; net profit aspect, respectively to 3.011 billion yuan, 11.615 billion yuan, 17.8 billion yuan, an increase of 398.86%, respectively, 53.51%, 30.28%. But in 2014, but the annual report shows that operating income and net profit growth rate of only 1.93% and -3.88%. At the same time, the first quarter of 2015, operating income, net profit growth fell sharply to -11.71% and -72.25%.
In this regard, insiders pointed out that over the past decade, China’s infrastructure and the rapid development of the real estate industry, providing an important basic raw materials to promote the building materials industry has been rapid development. But because demand was overdrawn in advance, building materials industry is facing serious overcapacity.
And in 2015 for our building materials industry is a watershed year, the demand for the first time this year, there has been negative growth after 2000, there has been continued after the release of several annual cement production capacity as the representative of contraction. CIC Securities in accordance with the first ten months of sales data to infer cement and glass, in 2015 these two mainstream building materials sales decline has become more determined events, is expected to decline at around 5%. And in 2000, the first decline in demand may mean that demand for building materials after 15 years of rapid growth, entered a relatively stable plateau.
Appeared in the decline in demand, the industry as a whole is in oversupply in the background, industry production capacity to become the only possible scenario, the difference to the capacity of the sub-sectors progress has led to significant differences between sub-sectors margin recovery. CIC Securities said the fiberglass industry has experienced from 2012 to 2013 in the trough, the recovery has been achieved in 2014, at the demand end drastic differentiation hypothesis, is expected to remain stable next year. Glass industry to production close to the end, and now the industry’s basic business losses, is expected to continue into the recovery in margins since April 2016. Cement industry to production has just begun, is expected to start to recover in time to profit next year after November.
At the same time, some industry insiders believe that the real estate market in the future is still facing greater pressure to the stock, increasing both supply and demand become more rational, the sharp rebound in the future less likely, it is expected that in the coming months, the building materials market is difficult to have outstanding performance, or will remain low gentle run. But this year the economic situation of the data depends on the fourth quarter, particularly in real estate in the fourth quarter trend. With the gradual implementation of the stimulus side and previous policy, the real estate investment growth and destocking speed will be improved, the demand for steel will also increase, the price of building materials market also play better supporting role.
It is worth noting that on December 9, Premier Li Keqiang held a State Council executive meeting, the central enterprises to deploy promote efficiency upgrades.
December 11, the State Council approved the COSCO Group and China Shipping Group restructuring. GF Securities think that this revelation of the building materials industry is that there is a strong consolidation is expected to China Building Materials Group and Materials Group, if the integration platform shell company (company divestitures), and there are strong assets into the company expected the stock is more resilient.
So in the secondary market, and what outstanding shares of listed companies do? According to the “Securities Daily” reporters Statistics show this week, a total of 61 building materials stocks rose realized, the cumulative increase over 10% of stocks are 19 period, the cumulative increase during Gu Technology topped 22.6%, followed by gold round the shares during the cumulative increase of 17.85%, the cumulative increase more than 17% also during Amalek Dayton, large single-17.03%, in addition, the National Unification shares (15.46%), Hainan RAJ (15.07%), Fujian Cement (13.98%) , Tapai Group (13.78%), Dragon Pipe (13.34%), Nachuan shares (13.23%), Jiayu shares (13.00%) also performed relatively well.
Stocks in the afternoon layout, CIC Securities, said the two main concerns of growth and transformation. Because in the foreseeable time period, the probability of a significant recovery of low demand side, the supply side of the clearing profits recovery being difficult to evolve as the industry return to high economic status. Therefore, growth and restructuring is still the main attraction of investment in the coming year. Weixing new material has a significant growth in promising properties, Changhai shares.
