One of the centerpieces of President Trump’s trade war is his 25 percent steel tariffs imports. The point is to make those foreign imports more expensive. thus more comparative in cost to American-made steel, driving more domestic demand back to U.S. producers. On that score, the tariffs are working: The domestic price of steel rose 30 percent in just the last six months. U.S. Steel. one of the country’s biggest producers is forecasting a 60-percent increase in pre-tax profits.

“The steel industry is one of the great things to be talking about,” Trump said last week. “The manufacturing jobs are back.”

Most steelworkers aren’t seeing much benefit from that surge in sales

U.S. Steel and ArcelorMittal are the country’s two largest steel producers. They have roughly 30,000 members of the United Steelworkers union between them and crank out about 40 percent of American production. The contracts covering both companies ran out at the start of September, and the union has been trying to hash out a new arrangement with them ever since.

U.S. Steel is offering a new six-year contract, with a 4 percent raise the first year, 3 percent the next two, and 1 percent for the remaining three. It would also introduce some profit-sharing, with further bonuses tied to the company’s future margins. And it’s throwing in a one-time $5,000 payment to help workers with their health-care costs. As for ArcelorMittal, the company is suggesting a three-year contract, with a pay increase of 2 percent the first year, and 1.5 percent thereafter.

But in the context of the bonanza the steel industry is going to enjoy under Trump’s tariff policies, union members consider those offers insultingly low. “Top company officials have given themselves more than $50 million in pay and bonuses since 2015 while the hourly workforce has not received a wage increase over the same period,” the union said in a statement. Don Ferko, the president of United Steelworkers Local 1557 in Clairton, Pennsylvania, told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that “[b]etween the tariffs and the tax break for corporations, they stand to make $2 billion this year.”

tariffs have delivered on the president’s promise to help out the steel industry

But every company is its own entity, with rival factions vying for power and for a cut of revenues. Helping out the steel industry does not necessarily translate into helping out steelworkers. Across industries, owners tend to have all the power these days, and workers little-to-none — a fact that’s roiling American capitalism.

Even as Trump has ramped up nationalist protectionism, he’s moved to exacerbate this workers-versus-owners power imbalance. With Republican help, he has scrapped regulations to boost overtime pay, made it harder to police workplace safety violations and more. His appointment of Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court helped usher in the recent Janus decision, which could decimate public-sector unions. And the arrival of Brett Kavanaugh, Trump’s latest pick, would further tilt the Court’s ideological balance against workers.

For now, negotiations between U.S. Steel, ArcelorMittal, and the steelworkers union will continue. U.S. Steel was sanguine in its statement to the Wall Street Journal, saying: “[t]alks are ongoing, and we continue to work diligently to reach a mutually agreeable conclusion.” One thing everyone seems to agree on is that they’d like to avoid a strike if they can.

And Trump had better hope they do. Because if a strike comes, the president may be forced to declare just whose side he’s on.