From the fundamental point of view, the supply side of environmental protection in the continued promotion. With the short-term capacity, utilization has been relatively high, is expected to nearly two days of data will decline, the latter part of the marginal yield improvement will help improve the fundamentals. Demand, the current terminal procurement data is still relatively high, the demand for a substantial decline or will appear in late May after the rainy season. On the whole, the demand outlook is expected to decline, but short-term policy interference factors are still concerned about the late production shrinkage.

The policy level is not yet good

With the “area along the way” international cooperation international forum gradually approaching, environmental protection will be further dominant. At present, China Cement Association has issued a letter on May 2, will be jointly Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Beijing, Tianjin six provinces and municipalities cement (building materials) Association, during the Summit Forum to implement linkage kiln limited production. Henan Province will be May 6 to 20 to stop kiln, the other provinces and cities May 11 to 20 kiln.

According to the time of cement kiln to infer, nearly a week is likely to be further issued on the iron and steel enterprises limited production documents, estimated to be related to provincial and municipal crude steel production reached 350 million tons, accounting for 43.4% of the total output. According to the limited production time of the week, will affect the output of about 7 million tons. In addition, the 20-day ban on the “land of steel” special inspector activities are also advancing at the same time, inspectors found that if found to be illegal or unqualified will be notified throughout the country criticism, the circumstances will be reported to the State Council. In the short term, the policy level will continue to support the formation of steel prices.

The production of steel mills determines the late supply changes

Cost profit level, the current part of the plate business has been on the brink of profit and loss, but also maintain good profit rebar. As the overall profitability is still possible, steel mills take the initiative to stop production is not strong, the supply pressure. But our research situation, many enterprises, especially the plate has been arranged in the maintenance of the suspension of production activities, is expected later with the price pressure will increase. Futures with trader 1566275883; time point is about to enter the rebar demand off-season, but the short-term rebar by the policy level of uncertainty is still large. The reduction in production due to environmental inspectors is expected to continue until late May.

Factors affecting the release of steel production also includes passive production, that is, environmental factors. From the perspective of environmental protection, the next two weeks Beijing-Tianjin region environmental protection production will have a greater impact on the production, steel passive production lead to a greater probability of supply shrinkage. Due to the high profits caused by the early increase in blast furnace production, crude steel production has been maintained at a relatively high level, the latter part of the supply margin is relatively limited. As of mid-April, the focus of steel enterprises crude steel daily average of 2.3199 million tons/day, the forecast near the two data may be further decline.

Social stock pressure is not, concerned about the demand down

3 months late, the release of negative factors, accompanied by a sharp decline in steel prices, trade stocks also fell rapidly. As the downstream terminal demand itself is not bad, low turnover is good, social inventory continued to accelerate down, the release of social inventory pressure also contributed to the early eight-yang, slowed the decline in steel prices.

From the terminal demand point of view, although the mid-March after the strengthening of real estate regulation and control, but the real estate series of data on the demand for downstream steel lag effect is still, 3-4 month terminal procurement data is still good, the Shanghai terminal snail procurement data is still seasoned High point. It is expected that short-term demand or will continue until the middle of May, need to pay more attention to the late May after the rainy season on the formation of the real impact of the negative impact. Futures with trader 1566275883; domestic champion, nearly 70 years of Mr. Lin Cunfu, the time point is about to enter the rebar demand off-season, but short-term rebar by the policy level of uncertainty is still large. The reduction in production due to environmental inspectors is expected to continue until late May.

On the whole, the time point is about to enter the rebar demand off-season, but short-term rebar by the policy level of uncertainty is still large. The reduction in production due to environmental inspectors is expected to continue until late May. Trade stocks have been low, the price difference between the steel price makes the decline is relatively limited space. From the point of view, before late May, steel prices will continue to be affected by many factors, the short-term market will continue to be repeated.