The fourth quarter of 2016 coal demand gap of about 40 million tons, in a tight balance. In 2017, if the coal production from 276 days to open up to 330 days, then the coal supply will again be greater than the demand, the annual surplus or more than 100 million tons.
December 1, deputy director of the State Coal Supervisor Song Yuanming in the 2017 National Coal Fair mentioned the forecast. According to its introduction, this forecast is the State Administration of Coal Industry Bureau of Industry Management Department in conjunction with the relevant departments to make.
Song Yuanming said that the coal industry to resolve the excess capacity to implement the 276 working days to reduce production measures is a major change in coal supply and demand this year, the primary reason.
Earlier this year, China launched a steel and coal industry focused on the supply side of the two reforms. February 5, the State Council issued “on the coal industry to resolve the excess capacity to achieve the views of the development of relief” (hereinafter referred to as 7), a clear coal industry “to capacity” target: from 2016, with 3 to 5 years, Out of coal production capacity of 500 million tons, reduction of 500 million tons of restructuring.
7, the text set a strict limit production policy, that is, from 2016 onwards, all coal production in the country 276 working days to implement the production, the statutory holidays and Saturday and Sunday do not arrange production, which is equivalent to the previous year 330 Production was down 16 percent in the week. China’s total coal production in 2015 to 3.75 billion tons, 2016 annual implementation of the 276 working days policy, the annual output of about 600 million tons of coal.
Reduction of production has been strictly enforced. The first month after the promulgation of Circular 7, that is, in March this year, the national coal production fell by 4.5% year on year. April to October, the monthly raw coal production fell more than 10% year on year, in June to reduce the amount of 16.6%.
Although the demand side is also declining, but the decline is much smaller than the supply. China Coal Industry Association, Wang Xianzheng said at the meeting, the Association predicted that from January to October this year, the national coal consumption of about 3.13 billion tons, down 1.9%.
“Just one year, the coal market supply and demand there have been two phenomena,” Song Yuanming said, coal supply and demand from the beginning of the serious oversupply into supply and demand tight balance.
In addition to reducing production, 7 text also requires strict management of super-capacity production, crack down on illegal production, and further increase the intensity of law enforcement in the supply side.
Song Yuanming said that although the “go to capacity” as a whole is conducive to the safety of the coal industry, but in October, the coal market prices soared, resulting in the recent safe production situation is extremely grim.
Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal prices from the beginning of 370 yuan / ton climbed to the highest point in early November 607 yuan / ton, or more than 64%, November 30 the index of 599 yuan / ton, still higher than the beginning of 60% . The interests of some coal mines regardless of safety-driven production of illegal production.
October 31, Chongqing Yongchuan Jinshangou coal mine gas explosion occurred in a particularly serious accident, killing 33 people were killed. 3 years and 7 months without major accidents in coal mine the longest historical cycle to an end.
Into November, the greater the frequency of coal mine accidents increased significantly. From January to November this year, a total of 22 coal mine accidents occurred in the country, an average of 2 months, but in November has occurred in 5 cases. On November 29, Heilongjiang Qitaihe City, a coal mine gas explosion occurred and triggered a coal mine fire, 22 miners have been trapped underground.
Song Yuanming pointed out that ultra-capacity production has always been a major cause of major accidents cause. 2002-2005 years, the coal industry there have been rapid growth in production triggered a major accident lessons.
At present, in order to meet the demand, the National Development and Reform Commission organized the implementation of legal compliance coal mine production release, from 276 days to 330 days. Song Yuanming said, according to the capacity of 330 days approved production is the bottom line and the red line, no breakthrough in any coal mine.