Category Archives: Press Releases

To the capacity as a central strategy for a firm consistent. In February, the State Council document on the 6th to raise steel production target: five years to resolve the overcapacity of steel 100 000 000 -1.5 one hundred million tons; in April this year, the Ministry of Finance to resolve the overcapacity in the steel coal supporting documents for five years, 100 billion yuan to resolve the allocation and use of coal production capacity of steel matching funds, to make specific provisions.
However, in this country from top to bottom to iron and steel production capacity in the trend, but there has been very uncoordinated steel complex production boom. In April, average daily production of domestic steel actually reached a record high. At the same time, since February, the weekly number of blast furnace operating rate and volume utilization rate throughout the country, has been showing the chain increased; long rebar futures prices rose, but also once people “amazing.”
It is reported that a number of steel prices has been discontinued after entering gradually resume production this year, it is to make decisions based on market conditions. To May, the momentum on the resumption of production is still rising. Agency statistics 242 steel companies the number of blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 84.23%, weekly chain increased 0.66 percentage points. At the same time, the resumption of production within a week again blast furnace 6, wherein 5 to resume production after a longer shutdown, the remaining part of Block 1 to resume production after maintenance.
To resume production capacity and the influx of simultaneous presentation, public opinions.
The author believes that the steel industry complex production flows and rising prices for regardless of what for, do not meet the laws of the market, it is difficult for a long time.
First, the global economy, the steel industry oversupply situation will not change.
China’s current crude steel capacity of about 12 million tonnes, crude steel production in the country in 2015 was 8.04 million tons, the industry capacity utilization is less than 67%. Called the tragic annual steel prices fell the most, run iron and steel enterprises are “loss leader”, into a situation of comprehensive loss. Therefore, whether the resumption of production surges or price rise, can only be a temporary phenomenon. After entering in March to coincide with the season, started the construction of large-scale project, rebar futures prices brought a strong stimulation in market sentiment and fundamentals of supply and demand together, steel production and the price of natural increase. But in the overall situation of oversupply, this situation will not last long. Especially the backward production capacity, will be eliminated in the column.
Secondly, the steel industry is not conducive to the resumption of production and environmental protection.
April 28, Ministry of Environmental Protection to restart the interviews, the object is in Changzhi City, Shanxi Province, Anqing City, Anhui Province, Jining City, Shandong Province, Shangqiu City, Henan Province, Xianyang City, Shaanxi Province, five municipal governments, because the interviews in 2016 a quarter, a significant deterioration of air quality in these areas, the main pollutant concentrations in the atmosphere rise, not fall, and iron and steel enterprises to resume production closely associated. Steel largest province of Hebei to say nothing of. May 3, the ministry informed the first to accept the Inspector’s Hebei result, environmental pollution is less optimistic. It is certain that the future of the backward production capacity, pollution, environmental protection departments will not sit idly by.
For this reason, I appeal to the healthy development of China’s steel industry, “both gold and silver mines, but also to Guanghui”, the government and steel enterprises should work together to shoulder their social responsibilities.
As governments at all levels steelmakers location, should be firmly put center five years to resolve the overcapacity in the steel target into effect 100 million -1.5 million tons, which means six in iron and steel enterprises to be closed, integration. Able to fulfill the task to resolve, simply pure pursuit of GDP, local governments, “number one” should be accountable. At the same time, make good use of the central special funds, and effectively settle the capacity to re-employment and enterprise debt deal with laid-off workers, it is government social responsibility.
As the steel industry, do “Do not be clouds block our sight,” Do not be in front of the iron and steel industry, “revival” scene carried away. Pay close attention to the elimination of backward production capacity, seek vitality is crucial in transforming themselves in quality and efficiency. This is much more important than the temporary “multi-up money money.”

By 2015, the steel industry operating characteristics of approximately minus the rate of reduction, Lee lose money tight, the inflection point appeared to accelerate differentiation. In 2016, the steel industry as a whole overcapacity situation is extremely severe, increasing pressure on environmental protection, steel industry will also benefit long-running low, steel companies must adhere to the transformation and upgrading, hard skills, and establish long-term mentally prepared for tough times ahead.
2015 excellent steel market data sampling statistics
Steel production and sales statistics sampling
Special Steel Group warning sampling units totaling eight. From the data, 2015 excellent steel market has the following two characteristics: First, significantly reduced yields. Warning steel group eight major steel companies in 2015 overall production was 12.027 million tons, down 17.2% compared with 2014, decreased significantly. Second annual price weakness down key species.
Gifted steel production and sales statistics sampling
Quality Steel Group warning sampling units totaling 22.
Quality carbon steel: group member unit 2015 annual sales were 4.81 million tons and 4.61 million tons, 6.54% and 9.37% decrease, respectively, than in 2014; average prices in 2014 reduced 848 yuan / ton.
Cr alloy structural steel: group member unit 2015 annual sales were at 2.4 million tonnes and 225 million tonnes, down 7.72% and 9.19% respectively, compared with 2014; average prices in 2014 reduced 917 yuan / ton.
Gear steel: group member unit 2015 annual sales were 86 million tons and 780,000 tons, reducing by 11.6% and 13.2% respectively, compared with 2014; average prices in 2014 reduced 861 yuan / ton.
CrMo steel: group member unit 2015 annual sales were 1.44 million tons and 130 million tons, down 7.47% and 6.21% respectively, compared with 2014; average prices in 2014 reduced 904 yuan / ton.
Steel exports sampling statistics
According to data reported by 12, the case of steel export data from early warning group summary analysis of 2015 exports 2.089 million tons, down 11.5%; export average price of $ 650 / ton, down 21.3%.
Bar: Look from the quantitative analysis, the 2015 bar exports 1.859 million tons, down 9.2%. Among them, the export volume of non-alloy rods 243,000 tons, accounting for 13.0% bar exports, an increase of 10.8%; alloy structural steel exports 1.28 million tons, accounting for 68.8% of the rod exports, down 16.0%; spring steel exports 219,000 tons, up 22.5%; bearing steel exports 81,000 tons, down 1.8%. From the price analysis, the 2015 average price of $ 594 bar exports / ton, down 17.6%. Among them, the average price of $ 466 non-alloy bar / ton, down 25.4%; alloy structural steel average price of $ 551 / ton, down 18.2%; the average price of $ 659 spring steel / tons, down 18.2%; average bearing steel price $ 836 / ton, down 9.2%.
Wire: seen from the quantitative analysis, wire rod exports 99,000 tons in 2015, down 38.0%. Among them, the export of 52,000 tons of stainless steel wire rod, wire rod exports accounted for 52.5%, down 53.2%; alloy wire rod exports 47,000 tons, down 3.4%. Viewed from price analysis, the average export price in 2015 of wire $ 1,312 / ton, down 24.7%. Among them, the average price of stainless steel wire $ 1,921 / ton, down 13.1%; alloy wire rod average price $ 622 / ton, down 5.5%.
Pipe: seen from the analysis of the amount of 2015 steel exports 132,000 tons, down 13.9%. Among them, non-alloy steel pipe exports 98,000 tons, an slight increase of 2.0%; exports 34,000 tons alloy tube, down 40.4%. Viewed from the price analysis in 2015 steel export price $ 939 / ton, down 26.0%. Among them, the average price of $ 933 non-alloy steel pipe / ton, down 25.6%; the average price of $ 956 alloy tube / ton, down 25.0%.

Zombie companies “suffered another bad Recently, People’s Bank of China and other eight ministries jointly issued a document called for serious excess capacity without obtaining the legal formalities industry new capacity construction projects will not be allowed to give credit; For long-term losses, loss of liquidity and market competition force “zombie companies” or environmentally friendly, safe production of non-compliance and corrective hopeless enterprise and backward production capacity, and resolutely quit compression related loans.

The document, titled “Opinions on financial support steady growth of industrial structural adjustment increase efficiency,” (hereinafter referred to as “Opinion”) is intended to “further enhance the ability of financial services, industrial restructuring and development of breakthrough faced difficulties in financing, financing your bottlenecks, increase financial industry supply-side structural reforms and industrial steady growth, structural adjustment, increase efficiency of support, to promote industrial production, to inventory, deleveraging, lower cost, fill the short board, accelerate industrial restructuring and upgrading. ”

“Opinions” to strengthen the monetary and credit policy from support, to create a favorable monetary and financial environment, improve the capital market, insurance market for industrial enterprises to support efforts to promote industrial innovation and enterprise financing mechanisms, promotion of industrial corporate mergers and acquisitions, to support industrial enterprises to accelerate the “go global “to strengthen risk prevention and coordination put forward a series of six support industrial transformation and upgrading, lowering the efficiency of specific financial policies.

Among the most eye-catching than “differentiated industrial credit policy.” The policy is clear credit “favorite”: major technical innovation, industrial upgrading and structural adjustment programs will be favored. Banking institutions will be under the premise of risk control, appropriate to reduce the proportion of down payment loans for new energy vehicles, used cars and reasonable expansion of automobile consumption credit, support for new energy production, consumption and automobile related industries. For iron and steel, nonferrous metals, building materials, shipbuilding, coal and other industries a competitive product, market, cost-effective high-quality companies continue to give credit support to help promising businesses weather the storm. The “zombie companies” and backward production capacity will eat “cold shoulder.”

To prevent the “differential treatment” possible impact, “opinions” also requires actively and steadily do “zombie companies” Credit quit, maintain bank credit assets safe. Give full play to the role of financial credit information database, establish and improve inter-departmental disciplinary mechanisms, malicious evasion of bank debt and “malicious de Paul” enterprises and individuals to form a strong constraint.

In addition, the “Opinions” requires increased capital market, insurance market to support industrial enterprises.

Support in line with the “Made in China 2025” strategic emerging industries and manufacturing enterprises direction, at all levels of equity capital market financing. Encourage industrial enterprises to expand debt issuance standardized products to replace other high-cost financing. To regulate the operation of industrial enterprises in improving safeguards on the basis of debt to support its issuance of corporate credit bonds for debt restructuring. Expand the company’s credit class bonds issued to expand the exchangeable bonds, convertible bond market. Actively develop green bonds, high yield bonds, asset securitization and other innovative green financial instruments.

Steadily promote the development of asset securitization. Further promote the securitization of credit assets, supported by bank and revitalize the stock of credit to increase credit support to industry. Accelerate the housing and car loans securitization. Under the premise of prudent and secure, choose a small number of financial institutions qualified to carry out exploration of non-performing asset securitization pilot. Accelerating accounts receivable securitization business asset securitization business development and revitalize the stock of assets of industrial enterprises.

Advancing the first (set) of major technical equipment pilot the insurance compensation mechanism, the study of new materials, key components included in the first application of insurance premiums once the scope of the compensation mechanism. (Reporter Dong Wei)

Due to the increased cost of iron ore supply, coupled with the national steel production during the Spring Festival holiday is limited, before the arrival of the Chinese New Year holiday, Chinese iron ore port storage may exceed 100 million metric tons.

Bloomberg news agency quoted Zhao beyond futures analyst commented that the reason for the prediction port stocks above scale, originated from Australia and Brazil iron ore shipped to Chinese ports increased, especially in December last year, the sharp rise in shipments, And China’s own needs but also in the period before the Spring Festival this seasonal weakness.

Last week, China Customs announced in December last year, China’s iron ore import volume growth of 17%, to a record 96.27 million tons, the continuation of the growth momentum in November. Wall Street was informative article mentioned that the recent iron ore imports and steel industry rebound may pick up related. Last December the steel industry PMI data was 40.6, although still far below the line ups and downs, but the previous value of 37, a sharp improvement.

Beyond Zhao pointed out that domestic steel mills usually yield contraction in the Chinese New Year holidays, as construction activity slowed down, the workers holiday. Festival more mills will resume production, boosting demand for iron ore, port stocks are expected to fall.

Bloomberg also mentioned that a Shanghai Information Technology Co., data showed last week, Chinese iron ore port stocks rose 1.7 percent to 94.55 million metric tons, not only in the past four months, the stock continued to grow, but also over the five-year average of 92.7 million mt. Last reach 100 million tonnes in March last year.

Chinese iron ore port stocks increase means that the market oversupply situation continued, iron ore prices will be under further downward pressure. Last week, Citigroup also expects iron ore inventories at Chinese ports may more than 100 million tonnes in the first half of this year, also expects iron ore price of $ 36 per ton, compared with the previous forecast by 12%.

Last week, Citigroup Asia head of commodities research at Ivan Szpakowski said that iron ore is a high possibility this year of $ 30 per tonne below the important price, the main pressures from the demand side, “weak Chinese demand for steel, which means Steel production will decline, he said Chinese demand for iron ore will be weaker. “

Xinhua News Agency report quoted the CICC report, the next 2-3 years, if the most serious overcapacity in the industry to cut 30 percent, 300 million people will cause layoffs. These industries include: iron and steel, coal mining, cement, shipbuilding, aluminum and plate glass.
According to the 1998 experience, after 21 million laid-off workers have more than 1300 people re-employed, more than 100 people to get inside the place, accounting for about one-third of the remaining unemployed. According to this proportion, 30 percent above the five industries cut could bring one million unemployed, representing 0.3% of urban employment, the unemployment rate rose slightly. In this regard the need to increase financial transfer payments.
January 7, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said that coal is an important basic iron and steel industry, courage ton output capacity to resolve excess capacity. Increased fiscal support, the central and local give grants funds for staffing. Chaired the coal industry to resolve when the steel overcapacity work of the forum mentioned as cultivate new momentum, the development of new formats on the 4th in Taiyuan. This creates a lot of jobs, but also for creating the conditions to resolve the overcapacity.
Late last month, deputy director of the Central Financial Work Leading Group Office of Yang Weimin also believes that the capacity does not appear to mass layoffs. Structural reforms to solve the core problem is corrected three levels allocative distortions. “Macroeconomic policy to be stable,” “industrial policy should be stable,” and other five policy is to promote the general idea of ​​supply-side structural reforms, the implementation of supply-side structural reforms to boost domestic demand is not a negative, not rely on a file to implement the program, resolve excess capacity will inevitably There pains fallback policy to protect the “two basic”, will not appear laid-off large-scale problems.
China Bureau of Statistics survey unemployment rate this year will be officially released statistics, business is not easy in view of layoffs and the transfer of migrant workers return home for urban employment will continue to form the buffer, the unemployment rate may continue to show steady.
In this regard the need to increase financial transfer payments, due to overcapacity regional imbalances in the distribution industry, some areas face greater pressure to superiors give more financial support.

Shanghai January 10 Xinhua News Agency Reuters topic: domestic steel market rose to expand iron ore stocks rose to stage high point

Due to the strong influence of the futures market, the domestic spot steel market extended gains. But the demand is not sustained release. Iron ore prices were slightly weaker, mining city of inventories have risen to high stage.

Last week, the domestic spot steel prices. The week, early in billet prices rose and led to strength in the futures market, the spot steel prices rose significantly. However, the demand was not sustained release, combined steel production complex dynamic enhancements, new resources complement gradually put in place, lack of willingness to market very price. The latter part of the week, business confidence has declined, there appears Paohuo realizable phenomenon.

In the construction steel market, the overall price rise. Shanghai, Jinan, Guangzhou and other places t price week rose 10-110 yuan. But the price is a total of Hangzhou, Nanchang and other individual areas fell slightly. In Beijing, Tianjin market, the price quickly pull up the first round, will soon market transactions blocked. However, the current inventory is still low, businesses after completion of the expected sales volume continues to increase offer.

In the plate market, prices generally rise. Hot rolled coil prices rose sharply, but a closer look at specific market, in Shanghai, Hefei, Guangzhou and other places, the general situation is finished lower, after the transaction slip, prices a certain callback. Moreover, the late New resources would increase the supply pressure on the market. Plate prices also rose sharply, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Wuhan and other places about a week t price rose 10-60 yuan. Currently, tight resources can be sold for the price of a certain role in supporting the market, but the subsequent injection of new resources, supply and demand pattern will change.

Iron ore market in a weak market in the fall. According to the “West of the Shinkansen,” the latest report, the domestic ore market in Hebei iron ore fines price holiday run smoothly. Despite the recent steel market has been warmer, steel production complex power will be increased, but signs of the actual commencement of construction steel no recovery, demand for domestic ore is still relatively low. Festival continuous imported iron ore prices fell slightly, as of the 7th, Platts 62% grade iron ore index closed at 41.7 US dollars per ton, down $ 1.55 compared with before the holiday. Currently, the supply of international mainstream mining enterprises are still increasing, while the average daily domestic crude steel production has continuously dropped Lent, iron ore oversupply pressure is still large. Festival, iron ore port stocks rose significantly, hitting a new high since April 2015.

Relevant institutions analysts believe that the recent three-week period, the accumulated domestic steel prices rose on average per ton has more than 200 yuan. With the Spring Festival approaching, the end demand steel market will inevitably decline, the wishes of profitable merchant cash resources will be enhanced. Short-term, domestic steel prices facing some pullback pressure.

BEIJING, Jan. 12 power comes in the supply-side structural reforms to capacity, the National Development and Reform Commission Secretary-General, spokesman Lee Park Min said today that it would take five measures to firmly resolve the serious overcapacity contradiction, in which iron and steel, coal and other industries, strive through a period of efforts, a breakthrough in terms of resolving overcapacity.

National Development and Reform Commission held a news conference on the 12th, released macroeconomic data and respond to issues, the State Development and Reform Commission Secretary-General, spokesman Lee Park Min attended the press conference and answered reporters’ questions.

Lee Park Min said, the central government to resolve the overcapacity very seriously, put forward a clear requirement is to follow the market Forced, corporate body, local organizations, central support, according to disposal methods, local conditions, and orderly process, the right to maintain social Promoting stable relations with structural reforms. Specifically, according to the law for the implementation of market-based exit to create conditions for speeding up the trial of cases of bankruptcy and liquidation, to implement fiscal support, deal with non-performing assets, the unemployed re-employment and livelihood security as well as special awards complement other measures. To as many mergers and acquisitions, bankruptcy and liquidation less, and do a good job placement of workers work. Accordance with the arrangements and requirements of the CPC Central Committee and State Council, the National Development and Reform Commission jointly with relevant departments, related places to take strong measures, but also achieved some success. Next, the NDRC will take measures in five areas, unwavering resolve contradictions serious excess capacity.

First, continue to implement the “State Council on serious excess capacity to resolve conflicting guidance” to strengthen macro-control and market supervision, prohibited the construction of new capacity in industries with excess production capacity severely projects. To play the role of market mechanism, in accordance with the “group of four”, it is to follow route “digest a batch transfer batch integrate batch, out of a group,” to accelerate the resolve overcapacity. To innovative institutional mechanisms established to resolve serious excess capacity contradictory long-term mechanism to promote industrial restructuring and upgrading.

Second, we must pay more attention to the use of market mechanisms, economic instruments, legal ways to resolve the overcapacity, strict implementation of environmental protection, energy conservation, product quality, safety and other relevant laws and regulations. Strengthen environmental protection, energy consumption, quality, security of hard constraints. In strict law enforcement at the same time, with the use of price leverage and other economic instruments, with the market driven approach to resolve the overcapacity.
Third, policy efforts to increase production capacity to guide the initiative to withdraw. To study and formulate pragmatic and effective incentives to encourage qualified enterprises to take the initiative to push through a variety of channels to cut energy. First, according to the market situation and their own development, adjustment of enterprise development strategies, the initiative to withdraw excess capacity. Second, the implementation of cross-industry, cross-regional, cross-ownership mergers and acquisitions reduction, quit some capacity. Third, the implementation of urban transformation converting steel environmental relocation or reduction. Fourth, with the implementation of “all the way along the” strategy, production capacity through international cooperation, promote the advantages of production capacity, “going out.”

Fourth, create a favorable market environment. Standardize government behavior, withdrawal of government intervention in the market to protect against improper and various forms, and create a market environment for fair competition, so that all types of enterprises to participate in market competition fair. Strengthening legal means to solve the problem of consciousness, according to the law to resolve mergers and acquisitions, production capacity out of the assets of debt disposal and employee relocation and other issues. Safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of creditors, debtors and corporate staff, etc. according to the law. Improve the social security policy, and make proper placement of workers work, maintain social stability.

Fifth, iron and steel, coal and other industries, we strive through a period of efforts, a breakthrough in resolving overcapacity aspect, while the central government will set up special funds to local governments and enterprises to resolve the overcapacity were awards complement this award complementary funds primarily for the placement of personnel.

November 30, in Washington, IMF Managing Director Lagarde attended the press conference. International Monetary Fund (IMF) Executive Board approved on November 30 yuan to join SDR (SDR) currency basket, the new currency basket will come into effect October 1, 2016.

http://world.chinadaily.com/
China News Network December 1 electric (pak) November 30, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Executive Board meeting in Washington to make decisions, from October 1, 2016, will be included in the SDR RMB (SDR) currency basket. RMB became like dollars, yen, euro, British pound as the “world currency” – an international reserve currency. RMB “into the basket” What kind of significance? Process of internationalization of RMB have what effect?

Deutsche Welle Chinese network reported that the IMF Managing Director Lagarde made the decision after a meeting of the Board said that this is the Chinese economy into the global financial system, the process is an important milestone for China over the years to reform its accreditation monetary and financial system’s achievements.

She noted that China continued to promote and deepen in related fields will promote the establishment of a more dynamic international monetary and financial system, which in turn will support the Chinese and global economic development and stability.

Before the meeting, the former French finance minister had said that the RMB has had the necessary premise. Earlier this month, US Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew (Jacob Lew) also Chinese Vice Premier Wang Yang promised that as long as the Chinese currency in line with IMF standards, the United States will support the yuan join the SDR “currency basket.”

Weight third place

After inclusion SDR basket, right next to the renminbi weight will exceed the dollar and the euro ,, yen and pounds. From October 1, 2016, the right to five kinds of SDR currency weights will be respectively: USD 41.73 percent, 30.93 percent euro, the yuan 10.92%, 8.33% Japanese yen, pound sterling 8.09%.

Reuters quoted several market analysts pointed out that this is the process of internationalization of the RMB is an important step forward in its report. Once the renminbi to become independent of international currency, China will no longer need to finance security and huge foreign exchange reserves, these funds can be used to invest. In addition, the RMB internationalization also help to further open the Chinese market, the RMB assets to attract global savings.

Experts: more good than harm

East China Normal University finance expert Professor Huang Zemin believes that this view “Half the wrong.” He said that on the one hand, has its own international currency, the Chinese really no longer need to exchange high perennial reserve, “the IMF SDR basket of currencies but included it in fact as good as imagined so important; Although this has a positive psychological impact on the public, but decided to ‘the basket’ is the international status of the yuan, and decide the status of the yuan, it is the overall international status of China’s economy. ”

The macroeconomic scholars of East China University of Shen not entirely agree with Professor Huang Zemin views. He pointed out that the yuan “into the basket”, is indeed symbolic than practical significance, but the symbolic significance can not be underestimated. “On one hand, SDR proportion of global central bank reserves in less than 3%, on the other hand, it can send a very important signal to the market. Once the RMB truly established the status of international circulation, reserve currency, central banks in foreign exchange reserves will be a certain percentage of reserves into yuan. Of course, this is a long-term trend, within two or three months will not happen immediately.

Shen Ling said: “Although China’s export trade is already very high, but the openness of the capital account is very low capital entry control on the one hand be able to cope with the international financial crisis, we erect ‘firewall’, but the cost is RMB internationalization. the process is blocked. ”

Shen Ling noted that although the IMF SDR basket of currencies on the set “freely usable” The premise of the renminbi has not been fully met, but “the same as it was joining the WTO, which Forced our reform.”

Shen Ling said that the RMB internationalization “pros and cons”, but in the long run must be more good than harm. “Internationalization of the renminbi could become a reserve currency by central banks, the currency of payment in international trade. China’s foreign trade a lot, you can directly use the yuan-denominated, without having to go to dollars, euros and other third-party currency, so Europe does not contribute but for good. ”

In the past few years, the RMB rapid catch-up process is completed: in August 2012, is the world’s 12th largest renminbi currency. Today, it is the global currency trading volume has been ranking among the fourth, ranking more than yen. However, compared with the top three on the list currency, the yuan was a “dwarf.” The latest statistics show that the total amount of renminbi in international monetary transactions accounting for 2.79%, while the proportion was 44.8% dollar, the euro was 27.2 percent, the pound was 8.5%.

February 18, the Central Economic Work Conference held in Beijing. Analysts believe that demand management will become a supporting role next year, while the supply-side reforms will become the protagonist. Specifically, the core of the supply-side reform has three points: First, go inventory, and second, to production capacity, the three major state-owned enterprises reform, taxation, finance, social security and so on. Under the relevant policy is expected to escort, real estate, coal, steel and building materials and other four industries will accelerate the pace of de-stocking, growth and restructuring is still the main attraction of investment market in the coming year. Today, the “Securities Daily” special research center in the form of special reports on the four industry leading companies to the stock situation and sort out analysis for investors.

real estate

Less investment shrinking supply

To stock or real estate, “Thirteen Five” main tone

While the boom still low levels, but the warm air and the rise of industry sales data, the policy side, the market has seen signs of the real estate industry is getting warmer. The analysts also said that in the context of the supply system reform, to inventory and optimize the industrial structure of the real estate industry will become a trend, thus boosting industry to achieve recovery.

In fact, real estate has become a problem to the inventory management of most concern. In the recent meeting of the Central Financial Work Leading Group held on to resolve the real estate inventory has become one of the “four war of annihilation” General Secretary Xi Jinping, and in the 14th meeting of the Central Political Bureau meeting, as an important part of the supply-side reforms, Real estate stocks also an important issue to the meeting. Specifically, the conference made it clear that to resolve the real estate inventory by accelerating people of migrant workers, promoting the reform to meet the new public housing system as a starting point, to expand effective demand, stabilize the real estate market. And this, analysts on the “Securities Daily” reporters, including “speed up the people of migrant workers”, “to promote the new urbanization” and other tasks, will greatly activate latent demand for housing, in reduced investment, the supply of compressed background next, the actual supply and demand in the real estate industry to change the status quo, improvement of the current high inventory situation.

Fundamentally, as of November this year, China’s real estate sales data remarkable year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, by the end of a second-tier cities of the property market continued to pick up, driven by the national real estate sales area and sales amount of the first 11 months are up rose: National real estate sales 7.4522 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.6%; national real estate sales area 1,092,530,000 square meters, an increase of 7.4%.

At the same time, real estate development and investment growth continued to fall, in the first 11 months of national real estate development investment 8.7702 trillion yuan total investment growth to 1.3% from 11.9% in the same period last year. In this regard, Changjiang Securities, said the low level of investment in the real estate industry will become the norm in the future, but short-term rebound is still worth the wait. Based on industry mid to inventory premise, real estate investment is expected to remain in the mid-lower level (central value around 5%).

Despite the sharp decline in investment growth, but in the “negative interest rates” and to the inventory of large logic, major institutions have believed in the promotion of the policy side, the real estate industry in 2016 worth the wait. Wherein the Capital Securities will be represented, the next 3 – A 5-year industry topics will continue to destocking tone, full recovery still under the premise of destocking, optimize the supply structure and the release of just and reasonable demand and improve the type of demand, easing policy still has a play space; enter “negative interest rate” era, both ends of the supply and demand of the industry continued to benefit from the easing of monetary and policy environment, the demand side relative purchasing power increased dramatically, to improve the financial structure of the supply side will also release part of the profit margins, overall return pressure eased. Industry 2016 policy side is expected to remain good, and in the “negative interest rate” era, the industry will usher in a “warm winter.”

The risk capital is practical action to reflect their own optimistic about the real estate industry, which can tie treasure is directly continuous placards became the largest shareholder of China Vanke A– the real estate industry leader, which, Dongxing Securities, said the venture capital frequently raised placards leading real estate stocks show that venture capital to determine the performance of housing prices in the long run good. And whether it is based on the joint development of the business angle, or the angle of return on equity, and venture capital’s admission has been released to the market a very clear signal, leading enterprises and regional focus on housing prices still have a very high investment value, the future will have More housing prices are placards.

On the secondary market, at the supply side of the reform is expected to push this year to achieve a good overall real estate stocks outperformed the broader market, Vanke A, Poly Real Estate and other leading shares also recently is to achieve substantially higher.

Then there are what the company is expected to come to the fore in the “supply system reform” in the secondary market has become the darling of it? China Merchants Securities, said the new pattern of incremental new economy and stock picking is the future core logic. Incremental new pattern: Follow tier and second-tier Resource Value compensatory growth opportunities, corresponding to Nakasu Holdings, Fuxing shares; longer period required to pay attention to the real estate industry (especially pension); shock city background superimposed on the left side of the logic cycle, increase the value of blue-chip configuration, correspondence Vanke A, Poly Real Estate. Stock of the new economy: Follow transaction information, community service, inventory optimization and other fields, the corresponding LaSalle Bank, Fuxing shares, Yunnan City to vote. In addition, the city voted platform and state-owned enterprises or continued hot, correspondence Yunnan City to vote, as well as Shenzhen local Lushang related stocks.

Steel

Destocking Speed

Four angle Nuggets opportunities outlook

Recently, the State Council introduced the New Deal to clean up zombie companies, more than three years, the central enterprises will be clearing a loss, the steel industry to accelerate the process of production. Recent site statistics steel social inventory to speed up the signs, rebar futures prices a certain support. Since December, 1605 rebar futures contract price over the cumulative increase of 3% from the bottom. Insiders said that, due to lack of downstream demand, excess supply in the state, the intensity of steel production determines the size of the magnitude of the price boost.

It is worth noting that publicly available data show that in November 2015, 22 cities nationwide five varieties of steel community inventories decreased greatly affected by seasonal factors, the wire thread stock fell more than 15 percent. November stock 8,185,000 tons, a decrease of 1.0611 million tons, down 11.48 percent. Of this total, 7.301 million tons of steel stock market, reduce 1,007,100 tons more than in October, down 12.12 percent; port stocks 884,000 tons, down by 5.4 million tonnes less than in October, down 5.76 percent.

It is understood from the national wire rod, rebar, hot rolled coil, cold rolled coil, plate five varieties of total stock, as of December 11, the national comprehensive inventory total of 9.054 million tons, reducing 20,500 tons, a decline of 0.23%. National steel inventory ninth consecutive week of decline, the current inventory levels fell 6.67 percent from a year earlier. The market generally believes that the plate stocks continue to decline slightly, building materials stocks turned up by the fall, suggesting that seasonal factors affecting the demand for construction steel is more obvious, the latter the domestic steel market stock or will be transferred to the rising channel.

Judging from the listed company stock, according to “Securities Daily” Market Research Center statistics show that 52 steel companies first three quarters of 2015 was 20.085 billion yuan stock, up 9.54 percent drop. Among them, there are 38 companies in the first three quarters of this year showed varying degrees of stock decline, accounting for 73.08%, while Bengang Steel Plates, Hebei Iron and Steel, Chong Hing resources, Hangzhou Iron and Steel shares, Zhongyuan Special Steel, property in Rio, Hainan Mining, the new steel During the shares, Maanshan Iron and Steel shares, share your rope, Anyang Iron and Steel, Lingganggufen, Juli rigging, mining and other 14 companies Hualian stock decline in more than 20%, respectively, 61.20%, 56.05%, 49.38%, 47.75%, 44.79%, 43.48%, 37.07%, 33.60%, 33.06%, 32.00%, 29.74%, 27.39%, 26.50% and 24.37%.

According to CISA statistics, in 2015 10 months, medium-sized steel enterprises amounted to a loss of 38.638 billion yuan, of which the main business losses of 72 billion yuan, with an average profit margin of -1.5%. Loss of 12.516 billion yuan of which in October, a decline of 25%, the main business losses of 14.88 billion yuan, a decline of 27.8%, the main business monthly sales profit rate of -5.37%, another record high deficit years.

Analysts pointed out that the steel industry reduced production, will promote the steel industry destocking accelerated. Supply-side reform, the state-owned steel enterprises will accelerate reform and transition in China’s economic restructuring and transformation process, the steel will play a more important role in the military, aerospace, automotive, high-speed rail, nuclear power and other fields; new line of Guangdong, Zhejiang officially approved marking China’s oil and gas pipeline construction will accelerate again, the steel industry structural growth worth the wait.

From the secondary market, the performance of the steel plate this week, more active, in 52 steel stocks can be traded in the stock outperformed the broader market this week, there are 35 stocks in which Constant new day, Panzhihua vanadium and titanium, Xining Special Steel week, up more than 30 percent, reaching 34.29%, 30.61%, 24.33%, while the HTC mining, Hebei Iron and Steel, Shandong mining, Jinzhou pipeline, Daye Special Steel and other stocks also rose over the week in 10% or more.

Investment opportunities, GF Securities, said the steel industry continued to boom down, supply-side reform accelerated down production capacity. From the perspective of four Nuggets outlook opportunity: First, welcome policy spring breeze, the steel industry has become one of the main areas of state-owned enterprises. More reform is expected in the form of incentives, asset allocation, optimization of the ownership structure of state-owned steel enterprises to improve their efficiency from nature. Focus on: Bayi Iron and Steel, SGIS, Baosteel, Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes, Angang Steel, Bengang Steel Plates, Lingganggufen, three steel Min light, Hebei Iron and Steel. Second, diversified business transformation booster steel prices profitability. Or in saving environmental protection industry as a leader, or the development of electronic business platform, or improve production technology, focusing on: Nanjing Iron & Steel, Hangzhou Iron and Steel shares, Valin steel. Third, steel bear in nuclear power, military, high iron, automotive and other areas of economic transformation task, the enjoyment of economic reform and restructuring bonuses, special steel industry into the high-speed growth. Key recommendation in line with industrial policies, leading companies segments: Jiuli, TISCO, Baosteel, Daye Special Steel, Fangda Special Steel, Fushun Special Steel, Maanshan Iron & Steel, Xining Special Steel. Fourth, benefit energy upgrades, structural reform and other oil and gas, oil and gas pipeline construction continued to accelerate. Recommend Yulong shares, Jiuli, Jinzhou pipeline and Chang Po shares; recommendations concern the nation’s largest ductile iron pipe manufacturer Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes.

coal

Accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity

The coal industry concentration is expected to further enhance

After a golden decade, along with overcapacity and environmental situation is becoming increasingly serious in recent years, eliminate backward production capacity, mergers and acquisitions to become the main theme of the coal industry, destocking has become a major practical problems facing the industry.

Decreased proportion of coal consumption will undoubtedly become a major industry to the inventory problem. According to the “Energy Development Strategy Action Plan (2014- 2020),” released in 2014, by 2020, the proportion of the national coal consumption dropped to less than 62% of total primary energy consumption control at about 4.8 billion tons of standard coal, the coal consumption total control at around 4.2 billion tons; basically formed a relatively complete system of energy security. While in 2014 the proportion of the national coal consumption was 64.2%.

In this regard, analysts said, although the proportion of coal consumption, China is gradually reduced, but can not deny that, coal and other primary energy consumption will continue to occupy a central position in China’s energy system over the next years. Therefore, production and eliminate backward production capacity in recent years become the main way to change the supply and demand of the industry, and how to clean and efficient use of coal is the main task of the coal industry in China. Future, with the upgrading of industry concentration, the technological advantages of leading enterprises towards clean and efficient coal will lead the way, to accelerate the reform of the supply system.

This year, the National Energy Board issued a “clean and efficient use of coal Action Plan (2015-2020)” was how clean and efficient use of coal requests, made guidelines. Specifically, the “action plan,” said the strengthening coal quality management, speed up the processing of advanced coal quality, coal-fired power generation technology and equipment research and industrial applications, and steadily promote related industrial upgrading demonstration, establishing policy guidance and market-driven combination The mechanism for promoting clean and efficient use of coal, to build clean, efficient, low carbon, secure, and sustainable modern clean coal utilization system.

Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission deputy also stressed the good 任连维 National Coal Trade Fair 2016, “Thirteen Five” period, China will accelerate the closure and restructuring of old, low-quality coal production capacity, strict control of total capacity. He said the next few years, there are still a large number of small coal mines need to eliminate or recombinant (production capacity of 30 million tons of coal mine total capacity totaled 570 million tons / year coal mine production capacity of 90,000 tons in total production capacity totaled 310 million tons / year) .

Back on the secondary market, this year the overall performance of the coal sector is still in the doldrums, according to “Securities Daily” Statistics show that within the plate 38 only 12 stocks to achieve higher this year, while China Shenhua, Lu’an and other industry leaders cumulative It fell more than 20 percent. But note that, with the supply system reform is expected to gradually increase, the recent steady rise of the plate, there have been signs of a specific point of view, since December, said 38 stocks have risen 30 to achieve, where Meijin Energy (23.87 %), Panjiang shares (21.9%), blackening shares (20.82%), * ST Aetna (13.21%), coal gasification (10.7%), and within a month the stock rose more than 10%.

In this regard, CSC said that in 2016 the demand-side and supply-side potential to stabilize expectations and may make changes in investor risk appetite stock, then bring the band of investment opportunities. But overall industry next year at the bottom of the consolidation period, so the stock will not be rising trend, more opportunities from the band picked up.

Specific investment opportunities, the broker said, coal stocks opportunity or greater than the second half of the first half of 2016, optimistic about the three companies: one to benefit from the supply-side mergers and acquisitions, state-owned enterprises expected the company: China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, Shaanxi Coal ; 2 to benefit from demand-side stabilization elastic varieties: Panjiang shares, Yangquan Coal, Shanxi Lu’an Environmental Energy, Jizhong Energy, Wing Tai energy and other varieties (operation timing of such species is very important); 3 Transition companies: Supply Chain Finance theme still cause for concern: Hejia, Swiss trade pass.

The Changjiang Securities is even more optimistic, the broker said, expect the supply-side reform fermentation sector is expected to obtain excess returns, excess returns promising sector continued to Spring: 1. Recent industry supply and demand on the margin improvement, coal downlink come to an end; 2 The demand side in the macroeconomic and structural adjustment downward in the background too difficult improvement, supply-side reform of the industry production capacity clearing more operational and practical significance; 3. current supply side gradually strengthening policy reform extent expected large scale implementation at the end of 2016 and will continue until 2018, will usher in a phased sector excess revenue opportunities anticipated first wave of policy-driven. Individual stocks, recommended the reform and reorganization expected strong, large group (local state-owned) assets quality local coal SOEs, such as great energy, Haohua Energy, Yanzhou Coal, Hengyuan Coal, cloud-dimensional shares.

Building materials

Building materials highlights the problem of overcapacity

Growth and transformation into a major investment attraction

Development of building materials industry and real estate development is closely related to, along with the continued weakness in the real estate industry, building materials industry overall downward trend evident, overcapacity and other problems have become more serious.

Data show that three quarters of 2014 is still substantial growth in the building materials industry, but never came to a standstill in the fourth quarter onwards, with the real estate industry, the trend is very similar. WIND three building materials industry in the 48 listed companies, three quarters of 2014, revenues were 51.9 billion yuan, 128.4 billion yuan, 203.7 billion yuan, an increase of 18.95 percent, respectively, 9.93%, 6.92%; net profit aspect, respectively to 3.011 billion yuan, 11.615 billion yuan, 17.8 billion yuan, an increase of 398.86%, respectively, 53.51%, 30.28%. But in 2014, but the annual report shows that operating income and net profit growth rate of only 1.93% and -3.88%. At the same time, the first quarter of 2015, operating income, net profit growth fell sharply to -11.71% and -72.25%.

In this regard, insiders pointed out that over the past decade, China’s infrastructure and the rapid development of the real estate industry, providing an important basic raw materials to promote the building materials industry has been rapid development. But because demand was overdrawn in advance, building materials industry is facing serious overcapacity.

And in 2015 for our building materials industry is a watershed year, the demand for the first time this year, there has been negative growth after 2000, there has been continued after the release of several annual cement production capacity as the representative of contraction. CIC Securities in accordance with the first ten months of sales data to infer cement and glass, in 2015 these two mainstream building materials sales decline has become more determined events, is expected to decline at around 5%. And in 2000, the first decline in demand may mean that demand for building materials after 15 years of rapid growth, entered a relatively stable plateau.

Appeared in the decline in demand, the industry as a whole is in oversupply in the background, industry production capacity to become the only possible scenario, the difference to the capacity of the sub-sectors progress has led to significant differences between sub-sectors margin recovery. CIC Securities said the fiberglass industry has experienced from 2012 to 2013 in the trough, the recovery has been achieved in 2014, at the demand end drastic differentiation hypothesis, is expected to remain stable next year. Glass industry to production close to the end, and now the industry’s basic business losses, is expected to continue into the recovery in margins since April 2016. Cement industry to production has just begun, is expected to start to recover in time to profit next year after November.

At the same time, some industry insiders believe that the real estate market in the future is still facing greater pressure to the stock, increasing both supply and demand become more rational, the sharp rebound in the future less likely, it is expected that in the coming months, the building materials market is difficult to have outstanding performance, or will remain low gentle run. But this year the economic situation of the data depends on the fourth quarter, particularly in real estate in the fourth quarter trend. With the gradual implementation of the stimulus side and previous policy, the real estate investment growth and destocking speed will be improved, the demand for steel will also increase, the price of building materials market also play better supporting role.

It is worth noting that on December 9, Premier Li Keqiang held a State Council executive meeting, the central enterprises to deploy promote efficiency upgrades.

December 11, the State Council approved the COSCO Group and China Shipping Group restructuring. GF Securities think that this revelation of the building materials industry is that there is a strong consolidation is expected to China Building Materials Group and Materials Group, if the integration platform shell company (company divestitures), and there are strong assets into the company expected the stock is more resilient.

So in the secondary market, and what outstanding shares of listed companies do? According to the “Securities Daily” reporters Statistics show this week, a total of 61 building materials stocks rose realized, the cumulative increase over 10% of stocks are 19 period, the cumulative increase during Gu Technology topped 22.6%, followed by gold round the shares during the cumulative increase of 17.85%, the cumulative increase more than 17% also during Amalek Dayton, large single-17.03%, in addition, the National Unification shares (15.46%), Hainan RAJ (15.07%), Fujian Cement (13.98%) , Tapai Group (13.78%), Dragon Pipe (13.34%), Nachuan shares (13.23%), Jiayu shares (13.00%) also performed relatively well.

Stocks in the afternoon layout, CIC Securities, said the two main concerns of growth and transformation. Because in the foreseeable time period, the probability of a significant recovery of low demand side, the supply side of the clearing profits recovery being difficult to evolve as the industry return to high economic status. Therefore, growth and restructuring is still the main attraction of investment in the coming year. Weixing new material has a significant growth in promising properties, Changhai shares.