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One team of analysts contends that higher steel prices could help U.S. Steel bounce back.

Shares of U.S. Steel (X) have lost a quarter of their value this year, but with steel prices heading higher one team of analysts call it “well-positioned for the short-term ‘catch up trade.'”

That would be BMO analysts David Gagliano and Matt Cartoceti, who see steel makers pushing prices higher to account for higher input costs, something that would help so-called mini-mills like Steel Dynamics (STLD) and Nucor (NUE), but U.S. Steel as well. They explain:

We expect the positive pricing momentum in the U.S. to continue into September, primarily due to higher input costs (scrap, iron ore, met coal, and meaningfully higher graphite electrode costs), which collectively open the door for producers (particularly the mini-mills) to attempt to push through additional price increases. For 4Q, early signals suggest a plateau in prices (stagnant lead times and end-market demand, and increasing inventories). However, in our view, downward pricing risk is limited unless the recent trend of declining imports reverses in 4Q17. Regarding the stocks, in our view, the steel equities remain inexpensive on lower than spot price assumptions, trading at 6.2x/5.3x 2017E/2018E EBITDA, based on representative HRC prices of $610/t in 2H17, and $600/t in 2018. Long-term preference remains STLD, while X is well positioned for the short-term ‘catch up trade‘ in our view.

London copper, lead and zinc on April 18 hit a three-month low, nickel fell to the lowest in June.

London copper, lead and zinc on April 18 hit a three-month low, nickel fell to the lowest in June, due to tensions in Northeast Asia to the UK will be held ahead of the general election caused by geopolitical concerns, affecting investors Basic metals and other interest in the economy.

“There are still some uncertainties in the market for geopolitical issues, and there are some risk aversion,” said Elper analyst Casper Burgering. “It is expected that this year’s copper market will be in short supply and demand is very good … but these factors fail to benefit copper ”

Base metal prices fell, aluminum also picked up earlier gains. The traders returned to the market after a four-day holiday on Easter, responding to a news that China would cut production capacity, so that aluminum once rose, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum price hit a four-year high on Monday.

London Metal Exchange (LME) index three-month copper fell 2.1 percent to $ 5573, intraday fell to the lowest level in early January to $ 5569.

Basic metals fell across the board, the fundamentals are difficult to embarrass the geopolitical situation
LME aluminum closed 0.9 percent lower at $ 1,892, rising to a one-week high of $ 1958.50.

Three-month lead fell the most, fell 6%, to close at $ 2105, intraday low see the lowest three months 2098 US dollars.

Basic metals fell across the board, the fundamentals are difficult to embarrass the geopolitical situation
Zinc futures fell 3.8 percent to $ 2525, reaching the lowest of $ 2517 in December.

Nickel futures fell 4.5 percent, to $ 9310, hit the lowest in June to $ 9305.

Tin futures fell 0.7 percent to $ 19475.