Analysts at Macquarie initiated U.S. Steel at Outperform today arguing that stable steel prices would be good news for the stock.

Steel stocks like U.S. Steel (X), AK Steel (AKS), Steel Dynamics (STLD), and Nucor (NUE) have been battered in 2017, but haven’t done too badly over the past 12 months, which puts investors in a precarious position: Buy or sell?

So much has depended on the price of steel–and the ability of companies to convert them into earnings. And in a report today, Macquarie analysts David Lipschitz and Xiao Feng contend that the “price outlook has stabilized,” and they “don’t believe prices will plunge to the lows seen in the previous cycle, as inventories and lead times remain supportive.” That’s a great environment for U.S. Steel, they claim, as they start the stock with an Outperform rating and a $31 target price.

prices will plunge to the lows 

They explain why:We believe near-term steel prices are likely to decline modestly due to the delay of Section 232 investigation and uncertainties on the demand outlook. Beyond 2017, our forecast of normalized hot roll coil price is $600/st as we don’t believe prices will plunge to the lows we saw in the previous cycle as inventories and lead times remain supportive. Even with stabilized steel prices in the second half of this year, we expect earnings to be resilient on improved cost structure and the asset revitalization program. Our EBITDA estimates of $1,112m and $1,191m for 2017 and 2018, compare to consensus estimates of $1,077m and $1,243m.

Lipschitz and Feng also started AK Steel and Reliance Steel & Aluminum (RS) at Outperform, while Nucor, Steel Dynamics, and Schnitzer Steel Industries (SCHN) earned Neutral ratings. They initiated Commercial Metals (CMC) with an Underperform rating.

 Shares of U.S. Steel have advanced 0.2% to $27.58 at 10:24 a.m. today, while AK Steel has gained 1.3% to $5.92, Reliance Steel & Aluminum has fallen 1.1% to $73.80, Nucor has dropped 1.8% to $54.34, Steel Dynamics has slumped 2.1% to $33.44, Schnitzer Steel Industries has slipped 1.7% to $25.85, and Commercial Metals has is off 2.1% at $18.47.