Analysis of steel price trend in later period

With the further consolidation of the new crown pneumonia epidemic prevention and control situation, the national economy is still recovering, and the demand for steel in the domestic market is expected to be gradually released in the later period. The supply and demand of the steel market will form a new stability, and the price of steel will fluctuate slightly.

(1) The policies and measures to stabilize growth have been implemented one after another, and the demand for steel is expected to recover further

Since the beginning of this year, facing the impact of various unexpected factors, my country’s economy has faced great downward pressure. At present, my country’s economy is in a critical window for stabilization and recovery. While efficiently coordinating epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council have made great efforts to promote the further effectiveness of a package of policies to stabilize the economy. interval operation. In the later stage, the state will actively promote effective investment, speed up project progress according to quality requirements, and strive to form more physical workload in the third quarter; make policy-based development financial instruments in accordance with laws and regulations, and accelerate investment in transportation, energy, logistics, agriculture and rural areas, etc. Infrastructure and new infrastructure construction; promote the recovery of consumption in key areas, continue the policy of exempting new energy vehicle purchase tax; implement city-specific policies to promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market and ensure rigid housing demand. With the further effects of various policies and measures to stabilize the economy in the later period, the steel demand situation is expected to improve in the later period.

(2) Iron and steel enterprises insist on organizing production on demand, which helps to balance supply and demand in the market

According to the statistics of the Iron and Steel Association, in the first ten days of August, the daily crude steel output of key iron and steel enterprises was 1.9433 million tons, an increase of 2.8% month-on-month. Based on this, it is estimated that the national daily output of crude steel is 2.7258 million tons, an increase of 0.02% from the previous month. From the perspective of the later stage, with the gradual release of downstream demand, the supply and demand sides are expected to form a new balance.

(3) The social inventory tends to be normal, and the enterprise inventory is fluctuating and declining

Since August, the social inventory of steel has dropped to the lowest level in the same period in the past four years, and the inventory of enterprises has also fluctuated and declined, paving the way for the recovery of market confidence in the later period. As of early August, the social inventory of five types of steel in 21 cities was 10.28 million tons, a decrease of 450,000 tons or 4.2% from the end of July; a year-on-year decrease of 1.85 million tons, a decrease of 15.2%. From the perspective of enterprise inventory, as of early August, the inventory of key steel enterprises was 17.05 million tons, an increase of 450,000 tons or 2.7% over the end of July; an increase of 2.43 million tons or 16.6% year-on-year.